the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Fresno State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (FRES) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -17.5 -105 | 44.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -18 -109 | 44.5 -108 |
| betus | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 |
| bovada | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 |
| fanduel | -17.5 -105 | 44.5 -108 |
| lowvig | -17.5 -106 | 44.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | -18 -110 | 44.5 -110 |
Best FRES number -17.5 · best SAC number +18. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from FRES's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 8:00 PM · dailyFRES -17.5 (-18–-17.5)o/u 44.59 books
- Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyFRES -17.5 (-18–-17.5)o/u 44.59 books
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyFRES -17.5 (-18–-17.5)o/u 44.59 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyFRES -17.5 (-18–-17)o/u 44.59 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyFRES -17.5 (-18–-17.5)o/u 44.59 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 23.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices FRES to win 99% — about FRES -31.4 vs the book's FRES -17.5. 13.9-pt gap — the market rates FRES higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 11:00 PMFRES 99%300k vol
- Sep 12, 11:30 PMFRES 99%304k vol
- Sep 13, 12:00 AMFRES 99%308k vol
- Sep 13, 12:30 AMFRES 99%315k vol
- Sep 13, 1:00 AMFRES 99%316k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM89°F (feels 84°)wind 10.3 g21precip 0%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM88°F (feels 81°)wind 11.4 g22precip 0%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM87°F (feels 81°)wind 9.5 g20precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.