the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes USC. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (USC) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -30.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -31.5 -105 | 59 -105 |
| betrivers | -31 -117 | 59 -112 |
| betus | -31 -105 | 59 -110 |
| bovada | -31 +100 | 58.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -30.5 -112 | 58.5 -115 |
| fanduel | -30.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -31.5 -101 | 59.5 -103 |
| mybookieag | -31 -110 | 59 -110 |
Best USC number -30.5 · best UL number +31.5. Best over 58.5 · best under 59.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USC's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 8:00 PM · dailyUSC -31 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyUSC -31 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyUSC -31 (-31–-30.5)o/u 59 (58.5–59.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyUSC -31 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–60.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyUSC -31 (-31.5–-30.5)o/u 59.5 (59–59.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 23.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices USC to win 99% — about USC -31.4 vs the book's USC -31. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 12, 11:00 PMUSC 93%1318k vol
- Sep 12, 11:30 PMUSC 99%1999k vol
- Sep 13, 12:00 AMUSC 99%2086k vol
- Sep 13, 12:30 AMUSC 99%2133k vol
- Sep 13, 1:00 AMUSC 99%2172k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM73°F (feels 78°)wind 4.4 g6precip 0%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM72°F (feels 76°)wind 5.2 g7precip 0%
- Sep 11, 4:01 PM70°F (feels 73°)wind 4.1 g7precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 10 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.