the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Hawai'i. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (HAW) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -7.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -7 -110 | 50 -115 |
| betrivers | -7 -115 | 49.5 -114 |
| betus | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 |
| bovada | -7.5 -105 | 50 -105 |
| draftkings | -7 -112 | 50.5 -110 |
| fanduel | -7.5 +100 | 49.5 -114 |
| lowvig | -7 -115 | 50 -114 |
| mybookieag | -7 -115 | 50 -110 |
Best HAW number -7 · best NMSU number +7.5. Best over 49.5 · best under 50.5. Latest snapshot Sep 12, 8:30 PM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from HAW's side.
Line movement
- Sep 12, 8:00 PM · dailyHAW -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 50 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 6:00 PM · dailyHAW -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 50 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 4:01 PM · dailyHAW -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 50 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 2:00 PM · dailyHAW -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 50 (49.5–50.5)9 books
- Sep 12, 12:00 PM · dailyHAW -7 (-7.5–-7)o/u 50 (49.5–50.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 23.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices HAW to win 99% — about HAW -31.4 vs the book's HAW -7. 24.4-pt gap — the market rates HAW higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 13, 12:30 AMHAW 82%2141k vol
- Sep 13, 1:00 AMHAW 80%2812k vol
- Sep 13, 1:30 AMHAW 71%4037k vol
- Sep 13, 2:00 AMHAW 85%5415k vol
- Sep 13, 2:30 AMHAW 99%6295k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 13, 6:00 AM79°F (feels 82°)wind 8.2 g23precip 0%
- Sep 12, 4:02 PM79°F (feels 82°)wind 8.1 g23precip 0%
- Sep 12, 6:00 AM79°F (feels 81°)wind 8.5 g23precip 0%
Showing the 3 most recent of 11 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.