the yahngorithm
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Syracuse
ACC
@
Pittsburgh
ACC
Week 3 · 2026 · Thu, Sep 17, 6:30 PM CT · ESPN · Acrisure Stadium
Market spreadPITT -10.5
Market total51.5
Model spreadPITT -10.8
Edge+0.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel PITT -10.8
market PITT -10.5  ·  edge +0.3  ·  SYR -0.2 vs PITT +8.1 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel PITT -9.6
market PITT -10.5  ·  edge -0.9  ·  SYR +0.4 vs PITT +7.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Pittsburgh. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
SYR-0.2+0.5+0.1+0.4
PITT+8.1-0.4-0.4+7.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

SYR expected
22
1.7 pts/poss
PITT expected
32.8
2.6 pts/poss
Model total
54.7
market 51.5 · 25.2 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

short weekPittsburgh5.2d resthurts PITT
Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.
short weekSyracuse5.2d resthurts SYR
Fewer than 6 days since this team's previous game. Less practice and recovery — a small negative, more so if they also traveled.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SYRPITT
ATS overall1-11-1
ATS at home1-11-1
ATS on the road––
ATS as favorite1-11-1
ATS as underdog––
ATS after a win0-10-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-12-0
W–L on the road––
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (PITT)Total
betmgm-10.5 -10551.5 -105
betonlineag-10.5 -10551.5 -110
betrivers-10 -11251 -114
betus-10.5 -10551.5 -110
bovada-10 -11551.5 -105
draftkings-10.5 -10551.5 -105
fanduel-10.5 -10251.5 -105
lowvig-10.5 -10151.5 -108
mybookieag-10.5 -11051.5 -110

Best PITT number -10 · best SYR number +10.5. Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from PITT's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

SYR20%
PITT80%▲ 1.6
Implied linePITT -11.3
Volume60k
Open interest51k
Traded 24h29k

Kalshi's market prices PITT to win 80% — about PITT -11.3 vs the book's PITT -10.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.