the yahngorithm

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22Houston

Big 12

13Texas Tech

Big 12

Week 3 · 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 7:00 PM CT · FOX · Jones AT&T Stadium

Market spreadTTU -7.5

Market total53.5

Model spreadTTU -10

Edge+2.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TTU -10

market TTU -7.5 · edge +2.5 (home) · HOU +9.7 vs TTU +17.2 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TTU -9

market TTU -7.5 · edge +1.5 · HOU +10.3 vs TTU +16.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Texas Tech. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

HOU+9.7+0.5+0.1+10.3

TTU+17.2-0.5-0.1+16.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

HOU expected

23.1

1.9 pts/poss

TTU expected

33.1

2.7 pts/poss

Model total

56.2

market 53.5 · 24.9 poss, average pace

Edge

+2.7

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

HOUTTU

ATS overall1-10-2

ATS at home1-10-1

ATS on the road–0-1

ATS as favorite1-10-2

ATS as underdog––

ATS after a win1-00-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home2-01-0

W–L on the road–1-0

Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (TTU)	Total
betmgm	-7.5 -105	53.5 -110
betonlineag	-7.5 -105	53 -110
betrivers	-7.5 -113	53 -113
betus	-7.5 -105	53 -110
bovada	-7.5 -105	53.5 -110
draftkings	-7.5 -112	53.5 -112
fanduel	-7.5 -110	53.5 -110
lowvig	-7.5 -101	53 -108
mybookieag	-7.5 -110	53.5 -110

Best over 53 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TTU's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openTTU -7.5o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyTTU -7.5o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyTTU -7.5o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyTTU -7.5o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyTTU -7.5o/u 53.5 (53–53.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

HOU27%

TTU73%

Implied lineTTU -8.4

Volume153k

Open interest132k

Traded 24h38k

Kalshi's market prices TTU to win 73% — about TTU -8.4 vs the book's TTU -7.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMTTU 73%149k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMTTU 73%150k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMTTU 73%151k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMTTU 73%152k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMTTU 73%153k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM91°F (feels 87°)wind 13.3 g12precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM91°F (feels 87°)wind 12.9 g13precip 0%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM91°F (feels 86°)wind 14.7 g15precip 2%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.