the yahngorithm

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Portland State

Big Sky · FCS

21Oregon

Big Ten

Week 3 · 2026 · Fri, Sep 18, 9:30 PM CT · BTN · Autzen Stadium

Market spreadORE -56.5

Market total66.5

Model spreadORE -71.7

Edge+15.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ORE -71.7

market ORE -56.5 · edge +15.2 (home) · PRST -48.2 vs ORE +21 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ORE -71.9

market ORE -56.5 · edge +15.4 (home) · PRST -48.2 vs ORE +20.6 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 2 books. Positive edge = model likes Oregon. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

PRST-48.2—0-48.2

ORE+21-0.5+0.1+20.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

PRST expected

0.6 pts/poss

ORE expected

54.5

4.7 pts/poss

Model total

61.5

market 66.5 · 23.4 poss, average pace

Edge

-5

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadOregonthen USChurts ORE

Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

PRSTORE

ATS overall1-00-2

ATS at home–0-1

ATS on the road1-00-1

ATS as favorite–0-2

ATS as underdog1-0–

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under1O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (ORE)	Total
betrivers	-56.5 -113	66.5 -109
fanduel	-56.5 -115	66.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ORE's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openORE -56.5o/u 66.52 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyORE -56.5o/u 66.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyORE -56.5o/u 66.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyORE -56.5o/u 65.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyORE -58.5o/u 65.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

PRST1%

ORE99%

Implied lineORE -31.4

Volume523k

Open interest522k

Traded 24h160k

Kalshi's market prices ORE to win 99% — about ORE -31.4 vs the book's ORE -56.5. 25.1-pt gap — the market rates PRST higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMORE 99%515k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMORE 99%516k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMORE 99%516k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMORE 99%522k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMORE 99%523k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM66°F (feels 65°)wind 2.9 g2precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM66°F (feels 64°)wind 3 g2precip 0%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM66°F (feels 64°)wind 4 g2precip 0%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.