the yahngorithm

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Coastal Carolina

Sun Belt

Delaware

Conference USA

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 AM CT · CBSSN · Delaware Stadium

Market spreadDEL -5

Market total57.5

Model spreadDEL -3.2

Edge-1.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel DEL -3.2

market DEL -5 · edge -1.8 · CCU -11.4 vs DEL -10.7 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel DEL -3.7

market DEL -5 · edge -1.3 · CCU -11 vs DEL -9.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Delaware. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

CCU-11.4+0.5-0.1-11

DEL-10.7+0.5+0.3-9.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CCU expected

30.5

2.3 pts/poss

DEL expected

33.7

2.6 pts/poss

Model total

64.2

market 57.5 · 26.2 poss, fast

Edge

+6.7

model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CCUDEL

ATS overall2-02-0

ATS at home1-01-0

ATS on the road1-01-0

ATS as favorite1-01-0

ATS as underdog1-01-0

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home1-01-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under0O–2U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (DEL)	Total
betmgm	-5 -110	57.5 -108
betonlineag	-5 -110	57.5 -107
betrivers	-5.5 -112	57.5 -113
betus	-5 -110	58 -110
bovada	-5 -110	57.5 -110
draftkings	-5.5 -105	57.5 -110
fanduel	-5.5 -110	57.5 -108
lowvig	-5 -106	57.5 -105
mybookieag	-5 -110	57.5 -110

Best DEL number -5 · best CCU number +5.5. Best over 57.5 · best under 58. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from DEL's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openDEL -5 (-5.5–-5)o/u 57.5 (57.5–58)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyDEL -5 (-5.5–-5)o/u 57.5 (57.5–58)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyDEL -5 (-5.5–-5)o/u 57.5 (57.5–58)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyDEL -5 (-5.5–-5)o/u 57.5 (57.5–58)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyDEL -5 (-5.5–-5)o/u 57.5 (57.5–58)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

CCU35%

DEL65%

Implied lineDEL -5.3

Volume12k

Open interest9.5k

Traded 24h1.8k

Kalshi's market prices DEL to win 65% — about DEL -5.3 vs the book's DEL -5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMDEL 65%12k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMDEL 65%12k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMDEL 65%12k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMDEL 65%12k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMDEL 65%12k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM68°F (feels 64°)wind 7.5 g10precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM72°F (feels 70°)wind 7.6 g9precip 1%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM71°F (feels 70°)wind 6.5 g10precip 2%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKOver 57.5total · sp_plus · logged at +6.4 edge

model 63.9logged 57.5close –CLV –

fast_pace

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.