the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Ohio State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (OSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -52.5 -115 | 60.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -52.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -52.5 -112 | 59 -114 |
| betus | -52.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 |
| bovada | -53 -110 | 58.5 -120 |
| draftkings | -52.5 -112 | 59.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -52.5 -114 | 59.5 -118 |
| lowvig | -52.5 -111 | 59.5 -108 |
Best OSU number -52.5 · best KENT number +53. Best over 58.5 · best under 60.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from OSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openOSU -52.5 (-53–-52.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–60.5)8 books
- Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyOSU -52.5 (-53–-52.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–60.5)8 books
- Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyOSU -52.5 (-53–-52.5)o/u 59.8 (58.5–60.5)8 books
- Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyOSU -52.5 (-53–-52.5)o/u 59.5 (58.5–60)8 books
- Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyOSU -52.5 (-53–-52.5)o/u 58.5 (58.5–59.5)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices OSU to win 99% — about OSU -31.4 vs the book's OSU -52.5. 21.1-pt gap — the market rates KENT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 16, 10:00 AMOSU 99%219k vol
- Sep 16, 10:30 AMOSU 99%219k vol
- Sep 16, 11:00 AMOSU 99%220k vol
- Sep 16, 11:30 AMOSU 99%225k vol
- Sep 16, 12:00 PMOSU 99%226k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 16, 6:00 AM77°F (feels 79°)wind 5.9 g9precip 1%
- Sep 15, 4:00 PM78°F (feels 83°)wind 1.7 g3precip 10%
- Sep 15, 6:00 AM79°F (feels 84°)wind 6.1 g10precip 8%
Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.