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North Carolina

ACC

Clemson

ACC

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 AM CT · ESPN · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)

Market spreadCLEM -3.5

Market total44.5

Model spreadCLEM -4.2

Edge+0.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel CLEM -4.2

market CLEM -3.5 · edge +0.7 · UNC +4.5 vs CLEM +6.2 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel CLEM -4

market CLEM -3.5 · edge +0.5 · UNC +4.9 vs CLEM +5.9 + 3 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Clemson. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

UNC+4.5+0.5-0.2+4.9

CLEM+6.2-0.5+0.2+5.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UNC expected

20.5

1.8 pts/poss

CLEM expected

24.7

2.1 pts/poss

Model total

45.2

market 44.5 · 23 poss, average pace

Edge

+0.7

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNCCLEM

ATS overall1-00-2

ATS at home–0-1

ATS on the road1-00-1

ATS as favorite–0-1

ATS as underdog1-00-1

ATS after a win––

ATS after a loss–0-1

W–L at home1-01-0

W–L on the road1-00-1

Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (CLEM)	Total
betmgm	-3.5 -105	44.5 -108
betonlineag	-3.5 -103	44.5 -110
betrivers	-3.5 -110	44.5 -113
betus	-3.5 -105	44.5 -110
bovada	-3.5 -110	44 -110
draftkings	-3.5 -105	44.5 -108
fanduel	-3.5 -110	44.5 -105
lowvig	-3.5 +101	44.5 -108
mybookieag	-3.5 -110	44.5 -110

Best over 44 · best under 44.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CLEM's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openCLEM -3.5o/u 44.5 (44–44.5)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyCLEM -3.5o/u 44.5 (44–44.5)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyCLEM -3.5o/u 44.5 (44–44.5)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyCLEM -3.5o/u 44.5 (44–44.5)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyCLEM -3.5 (-3.5–-3)o/u 44.5 (44–44.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UNC40%

CLEM60%▼ 1

Implied lineCLEM -3.6

Volume82k

Open interest68k

Traded 24h12k

Kalshi's market prices CLEM to win 60% — about CLEM -3.6 vs the book's CLEM -3.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMCLEM 60%81k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMCLEM 60%81k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMCLEM 60%81k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMCLEM 60%81k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMCLEM 60%82k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM80°F (feels 85°)wind 8.1 g11precip 7%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM82°F (feels 89°)wind 4.1 g7precip 3%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM87°F (feels 94°)wind 4.4 g6precip 3%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.