the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Penn State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (PSU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -39.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 |
| betonlineag | -40 -110 | 48.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -40 -110 | 48.5 -108 |
| betus | -40 -110 | 49 -110 |
| bovada | -39.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 |
| draftkings | -39.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 |
| fanduel | -40.5 -110 | 48.5 -104 |
| lowvig | -40 -106 | 48.5 -108 |
Best PSU number -39.5 · best BUF number +40.5. Best over 48.5 · best under 49. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from PSU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openPSU -40 (-40.5–-39.5)o/u 48.5 (48.5–49)8 books
- Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyPSU -39.8 (-40.5–-39.5)o/u 48.5 (47.5–49)8 books
- Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyPSU -39.8 (-40.5–-39.5)o/u 48.5 (47.5–49)8 books
- Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyPSU -39.5o/u 48.3 (47.5–49)8 books
- Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyPSU -39.5o/u 48.3 (47.5–49)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices PSU to win 99% — about PSU -31.4 vs the book's PSU -40. 8.6-pt gap — the market rates BUF higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 16, 10:00 AMPSU 99%170k vol
- Sep 16, 10:30 AMPSU 99%170k vol
- Sep 16, 11:00 AMPSU 99%171k vol
- Sep 16, 11:30 AMPSU 99%173k vol
- Sep 16, 12:00 PMPSU 99%174k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 16, 6:00 AM56°F (feels 53°)wind 4.1 g8precip 1%
- Sep 15, 4:00 PM61°F (feels 58°)wind 4.6 g8precip 1%
- Sep 15, 6:00 AM66°F (feels 65°)wind 5.8 g12precip 4%
Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.