the yahngorithm

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Mercer

Southern · FCS

Georgia Tech

ACC

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 AM CT · ACC Network · Bobby Dodd Stadium

Market spreadGT -39.5

Market total60.5

Model spreadGT -21

Edge-18.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel GT -21

market GT -39.5 · edge -18.5 (away) · MER -17.7 vs GT +0.8 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel GT -20.7

market GT -39.5 · edge -18.8 (away) · MER -17.8 vs GT +0.2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Georgia Tech. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

MER-17.7—-0.1-17.8

GT+0.8-0.50+0.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MER expected

12.8

1.2 pts/poss

GT expected

33.8

3.1 pts/poss

Model total

46.7

market 60.5 · 22.1 poss, average pace

Edge

-13.8

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MERGT

ATS overall–0-2

ATS at home–0-2

ATS on the road––

ATS as favorite–0-1

ATS as underdog–0-1

ATS after a win––

ATS after a loss–0-1

W–L at home–0-2

W–L on the road––

Over / Under–1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (GT)	Total
fanduel	-39.5 -110	60.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from GT's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openGT -39.5o/u 60.51 book
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyGT -39.5o/u 60.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyGT -39.5o/u 60.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyGT -39.5o/u 60.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyGT -41.5o/u 60.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MER1%

GT99%

Implied lineGT -31.4

Volume313k

Open interest305k

Traded 24h136k

Kalshi's market prices GT to win 99% — about GT -31.4 vs the book's GT -39.5. 8.1-pt gap — the market rates MER higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMGT 99%299k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMGT 99%301k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMGT 99%305k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMGT 99%310k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMGT 99%313k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 92°)wind 3.6 g5precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM81°F (feels 86°)wind 4.4 g6precip 0%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 89°)wind 5.7 g7precip 1%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.