the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Texas State. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (TXST) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -3 -110 | 63.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | -3 -108 | 63.5 -110 |
| betrivers | -3 -107 | 63.5 -110 |
| betus | -3 -110 | 64 -110 |
| bovada | -3 -105 | 63.5 -110 |
| draftkings | -3 -108 | 63.5 -105 |
| fanduel | -2.5 -122 | 63.5 -110 |
| lowvig | -3 -104 | 63.5 -108 |
| mybookieag | -3 -110 | 63.5 -110 |
Best TXST number -2.5 · best UNT number +3. Best over 63.5 · best under 64. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TXST's side.
Line movement
- Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openTXST -3 (-3–-2.5)o/u 63.5 (63.5–64)9 books
- Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyTXST -3 (-3–-2.5)o/u 63.5 (63.5–64)9 books
- Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyTXST -3 (-3–-2.5)o/u 63.5 (63.5–64)9 books
- Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyTXST -3 (-3–-2.5)o/u 63.5 (63.5–64)9 books
- Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyTXST -3 (-3–-2.5)o/u 63.5 (63.5–64)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices TXST to win 57% — about TXST -2.4 vs the book's TXST -3. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 16, 10:00 AMTXST 57%48k vol
- Sep 16, 10:30 AMTXST 57%48k vol
- Sep 16, 11:00 AMTXST 57%49k vol
- Sep 16, 11:30 AMTXST 57%49k vol
- Sep 16, 12:00 PMTXST 57%49k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 16, 6:00 AM87°F (feels 89°)wind 8.9 g9precip 1%
- Sep 15, 4:00 PM86°F (feels 89°)wind 7.3 g7precip 6%
- Sep 15, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 88°)wind 9.3 g9precip 1%
Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.