the yahngorithm
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Bowling Green
Mid-American
@
Iowa State
Big 12
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 AM CT · ESPNU · Jack Trice Stadium
Market spreadISU -23.5
Market total44.5
Model spreadISU -23.5
Edge0

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ISU -23.5
market ISU -23.5  ·  edge 0  ·  BGSU -19.4 vs ISU +1.6 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ISU -23.8
market ISU -23.5  ·  edge +0.3  ·  BGSU -20 vs ISU +1.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Iowa State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
BGSU-19.4-0.5-0.1-20
ISU+1.60-0.5+1.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

BGSU expected
10
0.9 pts/poss
ISU expected
33.5
2.9 pts/poss
Model total
43.5
market 44.5 · 22.8 poss, average pace
Edge
-1
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadIowa Statethen Utahhurts ISU
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

BGSUISU
ATS overall0-21-1
ATS at home0-10-1
ATS on the road0-11-0
ATS as favorite0-10-1
ATS as underdog0-11-0
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home0-11-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ISU)Total
betmgm-23.5 -11044.5 -115
betonlineag-23.5 -11044.5 -112
betrivers-24 -10845.5 -113
betus-23.5 -11045 -110
bovada-23.5 -11545.5 -105
draftkings-23.5 -11544.5 -118
fanduel-23.5 -11844.5 -112
lowvig-23.5 -10644.5 -110
mybookieag-23.5 -11045 -110

Best ISU number -23.5 · best BGSU number +24. Best over 44.5 · best under 45.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ISU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

BGSU6%
ISU94%
Implied lineISU -21.1
Volume11k
Open interest11k
Traded 24h1.7k

Kalshi's market prices ISU to win 94% — about ISU -21.1 vs the book's ISU -23.5. 2.4-pt gap — the market rates BGSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.