the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Arkansas. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (ARK) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | +25.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 |
| betonlineag | +25.5 -105 | 54 -110 |
| betrivers | +26 -113 | 54.5 -109 |
| betus | +25 -110 | 54 -110 |
| bovada | +24.5 +100 | 54 -115 |
| draftkings | +25.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 |
| fanduel | +25.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 |
| lowvig | +25.5 -101 | 54 -108 |
| mybookieag | +24.5 -110 | 54 -110 |
Best ARK number +26 · best UGA number -24.5. Best over 54 · best under 54.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ARK's side.
Line movement
- Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openUGA -25.5 (24.5–26)o/u 54 (54–54.5)9 books
- Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyUGA -25.5 (24.5–26)o/u 54 (54–54.5)9 books
- Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyUGA -25.5 (24.5–26)o/u 54 (54–54.5)9 books
- Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyUGA -25.5 (24.5–26)o/u 54 (54–54.5)9 books
- Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyUGA -25.5 (24.5–26)o/u 54.5 (53.5–54.5)9 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices ARK to win 4% — about UGA -23.6 vs the book's UGA -25.5. 1.9-pt gap — the market rates ARK higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 16, 10:00 AMARK 5%122k vol
- Sep 16, 10:30 AMARK 5%123k vol
- Sep 16, 11:00 AMARK 5%124k vol
- Sep 16, 11:30 AMARK 5%124k vol
- Sep 16, 12:00 PMARK 4%125k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 16, 6:00 AM90°F (feels 88°)wind 13.4 g18precip 0%
- Sep 15, 4:00 PM90°F (feels 87°)wind 13.7 g18precip 0%
- Sep 15, 6:00 AM91°F (feels 88°)wind 13.8 g17precip 2%
Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.