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Akron
Mid-American
@
Minnesota
Big Ten
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 AM CT · BTN · Huntington Bank Stadium
Market spreadMINN -24
Market total49
Model spreadMINN -25.8
Edge+1.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MINN -25.8
market MINN -24  ·  edge +1.8  ·  AKR -20.5 vs MINN +2.8 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MINN -24.7
market MINN -24  ·  edge +0.7  ·  AKR -19.5 vs MINN +2.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Minnesota. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
AKR-20.5+0.5+0.5-19.5
MINN+2.8-0.5+0.3+2.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

AKR expected
9.3
0.8 pts/poss
MINN expected
35.1
3.1 pts/poss
Model total
44.4
market 49 · 22.5 poss, average pace
Edge
-4.6
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadMinnesotathen Washingtonhurts MINN
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

AKRMINN
ATS overall2-01-1
ATS at home1-01-1
ATS on the road1-0–
ATS as favorite1-01-0
ATS as underdog1-0–
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MINN)Total
betmgm-24 -11249.5 -108
betonlineag-24 -11049 -110
betrivers-24.5 -10749 -110
betus-24 -10549 -110
bovada-24 -11549 -115
draftkings-24.5 -10249.5 -105
fanduel-24.5 -10549.5 -110
lowvig-24 -10649 -108
mybookieag-24.5 -11049 -110

Best MINN number -24 · best AKR number +24.5. Best over 49 · best under 49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MINN's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

AKR5%
MINN95%
Implied lineMINN -22.3
Volume24k
Open interest23k
Traded 24h4.7k

Kalshi's market prices MINN to win 95% — about MINN -22.3 vs the book's MINN -24. 1.7-pt gap — the market rates AKR higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.