the yahngorithm
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Arizona State
Big 12
@
Kansas
Big 12
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 AM CT · FS1 · Wembley Stadium · neutral site
Market spreadASU -6
Market total51.5
Model spreadASU -3.1
Edge+2.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ASU -3.1
market ASU -6  ·  edge +2.9 (home)  ·  ASU +5.9 vs KU +2.8 (neutral)
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ASU -2.7
market ASU -6  ·  edge +3.3 (home)  ·  ASU +5.8 vs KU +3.2 + 0 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Kansas. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ASU+5.9+0.1-0.2+5.8
KU+2.8+0.5-0.2+3.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 0 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ASU expected
28.7
2.4 pts/poss
KU expected
25.6
2.1 pts/poss
Model total
54.2
market 51.5 · 23.9 poss, average pace
Edge
+2.7
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelKansas4368 mihurts KU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.
revengeKansaslost by 4helps KU
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.
travelArizona State5259 mihurts ASU
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ASUKU
ATS overall1-11-1
ATS at home1-01-1
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite1-01-0
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win0-10-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-01-1
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under2O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (KU)Total
betmgm+6 -10851.5 -110
betonlineag+6 -11451.5 -110
betrivers+6 -11251.5 -114
betus+6 -11551 -110
bovada+5.5 -11551.5 -110
draftkings+6 -11251.5 -105
fanduel+5.5 -11051.5 -110
lowvig+6 -11051.5 -108
mybookieag+6 -11051.5 -110

Best KU number +6 · best ASU number -5.5. Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from KU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ASU65%
KU35%▲ 1.3
Implied lineASU -5.3
Volume22k
Open interest19k
Traded 24h7.2k

Kalshi's market prices KU to win 35% — about ASU -5.3 vs the book's ASU -6. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKKU +5.5spread · sp_plus · logged at +4.3 edge
model -1.2logged -5.5close –CLV –
revengetravel

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.