the yahngorithm

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NC State

ACC

Vanderbilt

SEC

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 11:45 AM CT · SEC Network · FirstBank Stadium

Market spreadVAN -3.5

Market total51

Model spreadVAN -4.6

Edge+1.1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel VAN -4.6

market VAN -3.5 · edge +1.1 · NCSU +6.1 vs VAN +8.2 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel VAN -3.6

market VAN -3.5 · edge +0.1 · NCSU +6.6 vs VAN +7.5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Vanderbilt. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

NCSU+6.1+0.4+0.1+6.6

VAN+8.2-0.5-0.2+7.5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NCSU expected

2.2 pts/poss

VAN expected

29.6

2.6 pts/poss

Model total

54.6

market 51 · 22.5 poss, average pace

Edge

+3.6

model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NCSUVAN

ATS overall0-10-2

ATS at home–0-2

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite–0-2

ATS as underdog0-1–

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home1-02-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under0O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (VAN)	Total
betmgm	-3.5 -105	51.5 -102
betonlineag	-3.5 -102	51 -107
betrivers	-3.5 -114	51 -112
betus	-3 -115	51 -110
bovada	-3 -120	51 -105
draftkings	-3.5 -102	51.5 -105
fanduel	-3.5 -108	51.5 -106
lowvig	-3.5 +102	51 -105
mybookieag	-3.5 -110	51 -110

Best VAN number -3 · best NCSU number +3.5. Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from VAN's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openVAN -3.5 (-3.5–-3)o/u 51 (51–51.5)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyVAN -3.5 (-3.5–-3)o/u 51 (51–51.5)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyVAN -3.5 (-3.5–-3)o/u 51 (51–51.5)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyVAN -3.5o/u 51 (51–51.5)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyVAN -3.5o/u 51.5 (51–51.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

NCSU39%

VAN61%

Implied lineVAN -3.9

Volume41k

Open interest39k

Traded 24h25k

Kalshi's market prices VAN to win 61% — about VAN -3.9 vs the book's VAN -3.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMVAN 61%40k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMVAN 61%40k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMVAN 61%40k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMVAN 61%40k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMVAN 61%41k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM93°F (feels 98°)wind 3.7 g5precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM96°F (feels 101°)wind 5.3 g7precip 1%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM92°F (feels 97°)wind 6 g6precip 1%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.