the yahngorithm
← board
Troy
Sun Belt
@
20Missouri
SEC
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · SECN+ · Memorial Stadium
Market spreadMIZ -27
Market total50
Model spreadMIZ -24.7
Edge-2.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MIZ -24.7
market MIZ -27  ·  edge -2.3  ·  TROY -9 vs MIZ +13.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MIZ -23.9
market MIZ -27  ·  edge -3.1 (away)  ·  TROY -8.6 vs MIZ +12.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Missouri. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
TROY-9+0.5-0.1-8.6
MIZ+13.2-0.5-0.1+12.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

TROY expected
14.9
1.2 pts/poss
MIZ expected
39.6
3.2 pts/poss
Model total
54.4
market 50 · 24.8 poss, average pace
Edge
+4.4
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadMissourithen Mississippi Statehurts MIZ
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

TROYMIZ
ATS overall0-21-1
ATS at home0-20-1
ATS on the road–1-0
ATS as favorite0-21-1
ATS as underdog––
ATS after a win0-11-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home2-01-0
W–L on the road–1-0
Over / Under0O–2U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MIZ)Total
betmgm-26.5 -11050.5 -108
betonlineag-27 -10550 -115
betrivers-27.5 -11050.5 -113
betus-27 -10550 -110
bovada-27 -11049.5 -110
draftkings-26.5 -11250.5 -108
fanduel-26.5 -11050.5 -110
lowvig-27 -10150 -114
mybookieag-26.5 -11050 -110

Best MIZ number -26.5 · best TROY number +27.5. Best over 49.5 · best under 50.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MIZ's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

TROY4%
MIZ96%
Implied lineMIZ -23.7
Volume20k
Open interest19k
Traded 24h3.9k

Kalshi's market prices MIZ to win 96% — about MIZ -23.7 vs the book's MIZ -27. 3.3-pt gap — the market rates TROY higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.