the yahngorithm
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Wyoming
Mountain West
@
Central Michigan
Mid-American
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Market spreadCMU -1.5
Market total39.5
Model spreadWYO -0.7
Edge-2.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel WYO -0.7
market CMU -1.5  ·  edge -2.2  ·  WYO -15.6 vs CMU -18.8 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel WYO -0.1
market CMU -1.5  ·  edge -1.6  ·  WYO -15.5 vs CMU -18.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Central Michigan. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
WYO-15.6+0.10-15.5
CMU-18.8+0.2+0.3-18.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WYO expected
21.7
1.9 pts/poss
CMU expected
21
1.8 pts/poss
Model total
42.7
market 39.5 · 23 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelWyoming1069 mi, 2hhurts WYO
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WYOCMU
ATS overall0-20-2
ATS at home0-10-1
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite0-10-1
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss0-10-1
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (CMU)Total
betmgm-1.5 -10539.5 -112
betonlineag-1.5 -11040 -110
betrivers-2 -10939.5 -110
betus-1.5 -11039.5 -110
bovada-1.5 -11039.5 -115
draftkings-1.5 -11239.5 -110
fanduel-1.5 -11039.5 -112
lowvig-1.5 -10640 -108
mybookieag-1.5 -11039.5 -110

Best CMU number -1.5 · best WYO number +2. Best over 39.5 · best under 40. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CMU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WYO47%
CMU53%▲ 1
Implied lineCMU -1
Volume2.4k
Open interest2.3k
Traded 24h567

Kalshi's market prices CMU to win 53% — about CMU -1 vs the book's CMU -1.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.