the yahngorithm
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Southern Illinois
MVFC · FCS
@
Illinois
Big Ten
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 1:00 PM CT · Peacock · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Market spreadILL -39.5
Market total53.5
Model spreadILL -31.1
Edge-8.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ILL -31.1
market ILL -39.5  ·  edge -8.4 (away)  ·  SIU -23.3 vs ILL +5.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ILL -30.5
market ILL -39.5  ·  edge -9 (away)  ·  SIU -23.3 vs ILL +4.4 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Illinois. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
SIU-23.3—0-23.3
ILL+5.3-0.5-0.3+4.4

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

SIU expected
10.6
1 pts/poss
ILL expected
41.7
3.9 pts/poss
Model total
52.3
market 53.5 · 21.2 poss, average pace
Edge
-1.2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadIllinoisthen Ohio Statehurts ILL
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SIUILL
ATS overall–0-2
ATS at home–0-2
ATS on the road––
ATS as favorite–0-2
ATS as underdog––
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-1
W–L on the road––
Over / Under–2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ILL)Total
fanduel-39.5 -11053.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ILL's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

SIU1%
ILL99%
Implied lineILL -31.4
Volume158k
Open interest158k
Traded 24h66k

Kalshi's market prices ILL to win 99% — about ILL -31.4 vs the book's ILL -39.5. 8.1-pt gap — the market rates SIU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.