the yahngorithm
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Maine
Coastal Athletic · FCS
@
Boston College
ACC
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 1:00 PM CT · ACCNX · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Market spreadBC -37.5
Market total52.5
Model spreadBC -44.4
Edge+6.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel BC -44.4
market BC -37.5  ·  edge +6.9 (home)  ·  ME -47.1 vs BC -5.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel BC -44
market BC -37.5  ·  edge +6.5 (home)  ·  ME -47.1 vs BC -5.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Boston College. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ME-47.1—0-47.1
BC-5.2-0.5-0.1-5.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ME expected
7
0.6 pts/poss
BC expected
41.1
3.5 pts/poss
Model total
48.1
market 52.5 · 23.4 poss, average pace
Edge
-4.4
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

letdownBoston Collegebeat Rutgershurts BC
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MEBC
ATS overall0-11-1
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–0U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (BC)Total
fanduel-37.5 -11052.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from BC's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ME1%
BC99%
Implied lineBC -31.4
Volume56k
Open interest55k
Traded 24h13k

Kalshi's market prices BC to win 99% — about BC -31.4 vs the book's BC -37.5. 6.1-pt gap — the market rates ME higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.