the yahngorithm

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Temple

American Athletic

Toledo

Mid-American

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:00 PM CT · CBSSN · Glass Bowl

Market spreadTOL -5.5

Market total51

Model spreadTOL -3.8

Edge-1.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TOL -3.8

market TOL -5.5 · edge -1.7 · TEM -8.1 vs TOL -6.8 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TOL -4.1

market TOL -5.5 · edge -1.4 · TEM -7.6 vs TOL -6.2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Toledo. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

TEM-8.1+0.3+0.2-7.6

TOL-6.8+0.50-6.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

TEM expected

22.7

2 pts/poss

TOL expected

26.5

2.4 pts/poss

Model total

49.1

market 51 · 22.1 poss, average pace

Edge

-1.9

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

TEMTOL

ATS overall2-01-0-1

ATS at home2-01-0

ATS on the road–0-0-1

ATS as favorite1-01-0

ATS as underdog1-00-0-1

ATS after a win1-0–

ATS after a loss–1-0

W–L at home1-11-0

W–L on the road–0-1

Over / Under1O–1U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (TOL)	Total
betmgm	-5.5 -108	50.5 -112
betonlineag	-5.5 -112	51 -110
betrivers	-5.5 -114	51.5 -114
betus	-6 -110	51 -110
bovada	-6 -105	50.5 -115
draftkings	-6 -105	50.5 -115
fanduel	-5.5 -115	50.5 -115
lowvig	-5.5 -108	51 -108
mybookieag	-6 -110	51 -110

Best TOL number -5.5 · best TEM number +6. Best over 50.5 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TOL's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openTOL -5.5 (-6–-5.5)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyTOL -5.5 (-6–-5.5)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyTOL -5.5 (-6–-5.5)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyTOL -5.5 (-6–-5.5)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyTOL -5.5 (-6–-5.5)o/u 51 (50.5–51.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

TEM33%

TOL67%

Implied lineTOL -5.8

Volume3.9k

Open interest3.6k

Traded 24h391

Kalshi's market prices TOL to win 67% — about TOL -5.8 vs the book's TOL -5.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMTOL 67%3.8k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMTOL 66%3.9k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMTOL 66%3.9k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMTOL 67%3.9k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMTOL 67%3.9k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM78°F (feels 83°)wind 6.1 g9precip 67%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM70°F (feels 72°)wind 4.5 g9precip 60%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM84°F (feels 89°)wind 8.8 g15precip 39%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.