the yahngorithm
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16SMU
ACC
@
23Louisville
ACC
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:30 PM CT · ESPN2 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Market spreadLOU -1.5
Market total59.5
Model spreadLOU -1.3
Edge-0.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel LOU -1.3
market LOU -1.5  ·  edge -0.2  ·  SMU +13.4 vs LOU +12.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel LOU -0.8
market LOU -1.5  ·  edge -0.7  ·  SMU +13.8 vs LOU +11.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Louisville. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
SMU+13.4+0.5-0.1+13.8
LOU+12.20-0.3+11.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

SMU expected
27.8
2.2 pts/poss
LOU expected
29.1
2.3 pts/poss
Model total
57
market 59.5 · 25.1 poss, average pace
Edge
-2.5
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams95°F, feels 101°, 39% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SMULOU
ATS overall1-0-12-0
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road0-0-11-0
ATS as favorite1-0-11-0
ATS as underdog–1-0
ATS after a win1-0–
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road1-00-1
Over / Under1O–1U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (LOU)Total
betmgm-1.5 -11059.5 -108
betonlineag-1.5 -10759.5 -110
betrivers-2 -11060 -112
betus-2 -11059.5 -110
bovada-1.5 -11059.5 -110
draftkings-1.5 -10859.5 -112
fanduel-2.5 -10559.5 -110
lowvig-1.5 -10359.5 -108
mybookieag-1.5 -11059.5 -110

Best LOU number -1.5 · best SMU number +2.5. Best over 59.5 · best under 60. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from LOU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

SMU48%
LOU52%
Implied lineLOU -0.8
Volume71k
Open interest67k
Traded 24h18k

Kalshi's market prices LOU to win 52% — about LOU -0.8 vs the book's LOU -1.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.