the yahngorithm
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Kentucky
SEC
@
9Texas A&M
SEC
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:30 PM CT · ESPN · Kyle Field
Market spreadTA&M -17
Market total50
Model spreadTA&M -20.5
Edge+3.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel TA&M -20.5
market TA&M -17  ·  edge +3.5 (home)  ·  UK +4.3 vs TA&M +22.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel TA&M -21.4
market TA&M -17  ·  edge +4.4 (home)  ·  UK +3.9 vs TA&M +22.2 + 3.1 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Texas A&M. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UK+4.3-0.5+0.1+3.9
TA&M+22.3-0.3+0.2+22.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3.1 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UK expected
16.4
1.4 pts/poss
TA&M expected
36.9
3.1 pts/poss
Model total
53.4
market 50 · 24.1 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.4
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadTexas A&Mthen LSUhurts TA&M
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UKTA&M
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home1-12-0
ATS on the road––
ATS as favorite1-02-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win0-11-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-12-0
W–L on the road––
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (TA&M)Total
betmgm-17 -11050.5 -108
betonlineag-17 -10550 -110
betrivers-17 -11350 -113
betus-17 -11050 -110
bovada-17 -10549.5 -110
draftkings-16.5 -11850.5 -108
fanduel-16.5 -11050.5 -108
lowvig-17 -10150 -108
mybookieag-17 -11050 -110

Best TA&M number -16.5 · best UK number +17. Best over 49.5 · best under 50.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from TA&M's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UK12%
TA&M88%
Implied lineTA&M -15.9
Volume24k
Open interest21k
Traded 24h8.9k

Kalshi's market prices TA&M to win 88% — about TA&M -15.9 vs the book's TA&M -17. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.