the yahngorithm
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Miami (OH)
Mid-American
@
Cincinnati
Big 12
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:30 PM CT · ESPN+ · TQL Stadium
Market spreadCIN -14.5
Market total50.5
Model spreadCIN -16.7
Edge+2.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel CIN -16.7
market CIN -14.5  ·  edge +2.2  ·  M-OH -8.5 vs CIN +5.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel CIN -16.4
market CIN -14.5  ·  edge +1.9  ·  M-OH -8 vs CIN +5.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Cincinnati. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
M-OH-8.5+0.5-0.1-8
CIN+5.7+0.5-0.5+5.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

M-OH expected
15.3
1.4 pts/poss
CIN expected
32
2.9 pts/poss
Model total
47.3
market 50.5 · 21.9 poss, average pace
Edge
-3.2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadCincinnatithen Kansas Statehurts CIN
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

M-OHCIN
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home1-02-0
ATS on the road0-1–
ATS as favorite1-02-0
ATS as underdog0-1–
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home1-02-0
W–L on the road0-1–
Over / Under2O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (CIN)Total
betmgm-14.5 -10850.5 -110
betonlineag-14.5 -11050.5 -110
betrivers-14.5 -11350.5 -112
betus-14.5 -11050.5 -110
bovada-14.5 -11051 -105
draftkings-14.5 -11050.5 -118
fanduel-14.5 -11050.5 -110
lowvig-14.5 -10650.5 -108
mybookieag-14.5 -11050.5 -110

Best over 50.5 · best under 51. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from CIN's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

M-OH15%
CIN85%
Implied lineCIN -14.1
Volume4.3k
Open interest4.0k
Traded 24h339

Kalshi's market prices CIN to win 85% — about CIN -14.1 vs the book's CIN -14.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.