the yahngorithm

← board

Duquesne

NEC · FCS

Washington State

Pac-12

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:30 PM CT · USA Net · Gesa Field

Market spreadWSU -35.5

Market total52.5

Model spreadWSU -42

Edge+6.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel WSU -42

market WSU -35.5 · edge +6.5 (home) · DUQ -48.3 vs WSU -8.8 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel WSU -42.2

market WSU -35.5 · edge +6.7 (home) · DUQ -48.3 vs WSU -8.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Washington State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

DUQ-48.3—0-48.3

WSU-8.8-0.5+0.5-8.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

DUQ expected

0.6 pts/poss

WSU expected

40.1

3.5 pts/poss

Model total

47.1

market 52.5 · 22.8 poss, average pace

Edge

-5.4

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

DUQWSU

ATS overall0-11-1

ATS at home––

ATS on the road0-11-1

ATS as favorite––

ATS as underdog0-11-1

ATS after a win––

ATS after a loss–0-1

W–L at home––

W–L on the road0-10-2

Over / Under0O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (WSU)	Total
fanduel	-35.5 -110	52.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from WSU's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openWSU -35.5o/u 52.51 book
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyWSU -35.5o/u 52.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyWSU -35.5o/u 52.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyWSU -35.5o/u 52.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyWSU -35.5o/u 52.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

DUQ1%

WSU99%▲ 1

Implied lineWSU -31.4

Volume57k

Open interest57k

Traded 24h28k

Kalshi's market prices WSU to win 99% — about WSU -31.4 vs the book's WSU -35.5. 4.1-pt gap — the market rates DUQ higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMWSU 99%55k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMWSU 99%56k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMWSU 99%56k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMWSU 99%57k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMWSU 99%57k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM71°F (feels 69°)wind 6.5 g5precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM72°F (feels 70°)wind 5.2 g4precip 0%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM71°F (feels 69°)wind 5.7 g5precip 0%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.