the yahngorithm

← board

Stonehill

NEC · FCS

Massachusetts

Mid-American

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:30 PM CT · ESPN+ · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

Market spreadMASS -33.5

Market total48.5

Model spreadMASS -22.6

Edge-10.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MASS -22.6

market MASS -33.5 · edge -10.9 (away) · STO -47.2 vs MASS -27.1 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MASS -23.1

market MASS -33.5 · edge -10.4 (away) · STO -47.2 vs MASS -26.8 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Massachusetts. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

STO-47.2—0-47.2

MASS-27.1+0.5-0.2-26.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

STO expected

9.9

0.9 pts/poss

MASS expected

32.5

2.9 pts/poss

Model total

42.4

market 48.5 · 22.6 poss, average pace

Edge

-6.1

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

STOMASS

ATS overall–2-0

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road–1-0

ATS as favorite–1-0

ATS as underdog–1-0

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home–1-0

W–L on the road–1-0

Over / Under–1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (MASS)	Total
fanduel	-33.5 -110	48.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MASS's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openMASS -33.5o/u 48.51 book
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyMASS -33.5o/u 48.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyMASS -33.5o/u 48.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyMASS -33.5o/u 48.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyMASS -35.5o/u 48.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM68°F (feels 65°)wind 3.3 g4precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM67°F (feels 62°)wind 3.6 g5precip 2%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM71°F (feels 70°)wind 4.9 g8precip 4%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.