the yahngorithm
← board
Wagner
NEC · FCS
@
California
ACC
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:30 PM CT · ACC Network · California Memorial Stadium
Market spread—
Market total—
Model spreadCAL -51.9
Edge—

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel CAL -51.9
 ·  WAG -51.9 vs CAL -2.5 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel CAL -52
 ·  WAG -51.9 vs CAL -2.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 0 books. Positive edge = model likes California. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
WAG-51.9——-51.9
CAL-2.5-0.5+0.4-2.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WAG expected
7
0.6 pts/poss
CAL expected
43.5
3.6 pts/poss
Model total
50.5
no market total · 24 poss, average pace
Edge
–

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

letdownCaliforniabeat Syracusehurts CAL
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WAGCAL
ATS overall0-11-1
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road0-11-0
ATS as favorite––
ATS as underdog0-11-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home–0-1
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Line movement

No sportsbook lines captured for this game yet.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WAG1%
CAL99%
Implied lineCAL -31.4
Volume86k
Open interest79k
Traded 24h6.4k

Kalshi's market prices CAL to win 99% — about CAL -31.4 Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.