the yahngorithm

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12USC

Big Ten

Rutgers

Big Ten

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:30 PM CT · CBS · SHI Stadium

Market spreadUSC -24

Market total59.5

Model spreadUSC -19.8

Edge+4.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel USC -19.8

market USC -24 · edge +4.2 (home) · USC +17.6 vs RUTG -4.7 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel USC -19.3

market USC -24 · edge +4.7 (home) · USC +17.1 vs RUTG -5 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Rutgers. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

USC+17.6-0.50+17.1

RUTG-4.7-0.5+0.2-5

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

USC expected

36.5

3.5 pts/poss

RUTG expected

16.7

1.6 pts/poss

Model total

53.2

market 59.5 · 21 poss, average pace

Edge

-6.3

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelUSC2426 mi, 3hhurts USC

Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

lookaheadUSCthen Oregonhurts USC

Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

bad spotUSCtravel + lookaheadhurts USC

Two or more situational negatives stacked on this team (e.g. a long trip on a short week, or a letdown spot after a long trip). Backtests ~57% ATS on the fade — a decision aid, not a lock. Take the points against this team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

USCRUTG

ATS overall1-2 33%0-2

ATS at home1-2 33%0-1

ATS on the road–0-1

ATS as favorite1-2 33%0-1

ATS as underdog–0-1

ATS after a win1-1–

ATS after a loss–0-1

W–L at home3-0 100%0-1

W–L on the road–0-1

Over / Under2O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (RUTG)	Total
betmgm	+24 -108	59.5 -108
betonlineag	+24 -112	59.5 -110
betrivers	+24.5 -114	60.5 -113
betus	+24 -110	59.5 -110
bovada	+24.5 -120	59.5 -110
draftkings	+23.5 -102	59.5 -108
fanduel	+23.5 -102	59.5 -110
lowvig	+24 -108	59.5 -108
mybookieag	+24 -110	59.5 -110

Best RUTG number +24.5 · best USC number -23.5. Best over 59.5 · best under 60.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from RUTG's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openUSC -24 (23.5–24.5)o/u 59.5 (59.5–60.5)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyUSC -24 (23.5–24.5)o/u 59.5 (59.5–60.5)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyUSC -24 (23.5–24.5)o/u 59.5 (59.5–60.5)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyUSC -24 (23.5–24.5)o/u 59.5 (59.5–60.5)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyUSC -24 (23.5–24.5)o/u 59.59 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

USC93%

RUTG7%

Implied lineUSC -20

Volume34k

Open interest31k

Traded 24h5.3k

Kalshi's market prices RUTG to win 7% — about USC -20 vs the book's USC -24. 4.0-pt gap — the market rates RUTG higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMRUTG 6%34k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMRUTG 7%34k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMRUTG 7%34k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMRUTG 7%34k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMRUTG 7%34k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM65°F (feels 62°)wind 7 g11precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM65°F (feels 63°)wind 5.7 g11precip 3%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM72°Fwind 8.4 g11precip 4%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.