the yahngorithm
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Florida State
ACC
@
10Alabama
SEC
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:30 PM CT · ABC · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Market spreadALA -19.5
Market total49.5
Model spreadALA -16
Edge-3.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ALA -16
market ALA -19.5  ·  edge -3.5 (away)  ·  FSU +5.8 vs ALA +19.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ALA -17
market ALA -19.5  ·  edge -2.5 (away)  ·  FSU +5.1 vs ALA +19.1 + 3 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Alabama. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
FSU+5.8-0.5-0.2+5.1
ALA+19.3-0.1-0.1+19.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

FSU expected
14.7
1.3 pts/poss
ALA expected
30.7
2.8 pts/poss
Model total
45.4
market 49.5 · 22 poss, average pace
Edge
-4.1
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

off byeFlorida State11.8d resthelps FSU
A skipped week on the schedule (a true bye). Extra prep time — usually a small positive, especially for the better-coached team and for underdogs.
extreme heatBoth teams99°F, feels 106°, 34% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

FSUALA
ATS overall0-1-12-0
ATS at home0-1-11-0
ATS on the road–1-0
ATS as favorite0-12-0
ATS as underdog0-0-1–
ATS after a win0-0-11-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-11-0
W–L on the road–1-0
Over / Under0O–2U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ALA)Total
betmgm-19.5 -10849.5 -108
betonlineag-19 -11049.5 -115
betrivers-20.5 -11049.5 -112
betus-19.5 -11049.5 -110
bovada-19.5 -11049 -105
draftkings-19.5 -11049.5 -108
fanduel-19.5 -11249.5 -110
lowvig-19 -10649.5 -114
mybookieag-20 -11049.5 -110

Best ALA number -19 · best FSU number +20.5. Best over 49 · best under 49.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ALA's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

FSU9%
ALA91%
Implied lineALA -18.2
Volume72k
Open interest60k
Traded 24h13k

Kalshi's market prices ALA to win 91% — about ALA -18.2 vs the book's ALA -19.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.