the yahngorithm

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UTEP

Mountain West

19Michigan

Big Ten

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 2:30 PM CT · BTN · Michigan Stadium

Market spreadMICH -35.3

Market total48.5

Model spreadMICH -32.5

Edge-2.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MICH -32.5

market MICH -35.3 · edge -2.7 (away) · UTEP -18.1 vs MICH +11.9 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MICH -32.8

market MICH -35.3 · edge -2.5 (away) · UTEP -18.4 vs MICH +11.6 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Michigan. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

UTEP-18.1-0.30-18.4

MICH+11.9-0.5+0.2+11.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UTEP expected

8.5

0.7 pts/poss

MICH expected

3.4 pts/poss

Model total

49.5

market 48.5 · 23.9 poss, average pace

Edge

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadMichiganthen Iowahurts MICH

Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

letdownMichiganbeat Oklahomahurts MICH

Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

travelUTEP1443 mi, 2hhurts UTEP

Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.

bad spotMichiganlookahead + letdownhurts MICH

Two or more situational negatives stacked on this team (e.g. a long trip on a short week, or a letdown spot after a long trip). Backtests ~57% ATS on the fade — a decision aid, not a lock. Take the points against this team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UTEPMICH

ATS overall1-11-1

ATS at home1-01-1

ATS on the road0-1–

ATS as favorite1-00-1

ATS as underdog0-11-0

ATS after a win–1-0

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home1-02-0

W–L on the road0-1–

Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (MICH)	Total
betmgm	-35.5 -108	48.5 -110
betonlineag	-35 -110	48 -110
betrivers	-35.5 -110	49 -112
betus	-35 -110	48 -110
bovada	-35 -110	48.5 -110
draftkings	-35.5 -102	48.5 -105
fanduel	-35.5 -105	48.5 -104
lowvig	-35 -106	48 -108

Best MICH number -35 · best UTEP number +35.5. Best over 48 · best under 49. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MICH's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openMICH -35.3 (-35.5–-35)o/u 48.5 (48–49)8 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyMICH -35.3 (-35.5–-35)o/u 48.5 (48–49)8 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyMICH -35.3 (-35.5–-35)o/u 48.5 (48–49)8 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyMICH -35.3 (-35.5–-35)o/u 48.5 (48–49)8 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyMICH -35.3 (-35.5–-35)o/u 48.3 (47.5–49)8 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UTEP1%

MICH99%

Implied lineMICH -31.4

Volume330k

Open interest306k

Traded 24h18k

Kalshi's market prices MICH to win 99% — about MICH -31.4 vs the book's MICH -35.3. 3.8-pt gap — the market rates UTEP higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMMICH 99%328k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMMICH 99%329k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMMICH 99%330k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMMICH 99%330k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMMICH 99%330k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM76°F (feels 77°)wind 10.5 g13precip 75%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM63°F (feels 61°)wind 11.8 g19precip 70%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM80°F (feels 83°)wind 11.2 g17precip 52%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.