the yahngorithm
Spread models
The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 8 books. Positive edge = model likes Indiana. Guide §2.
SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.
Totals model
Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.
Situational flags
No situational flags on this game.
Team trends · 2026 season to date
Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.
Current lines
| Book | Spread (IU) | Total |
|---|---|---|
| betmgm | -44.5 -108 | 60.5 -112 |
| betonlineag | -44 -112 | 60 -110 |
| betrivers | -44.5 -112 | 59.5 -113 |
| betus | -44.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 |
| bovada | -44 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
| draftkings | -44.5 -112 | 60.5 -110 |
| fanduel | -44.5 -115 | 60.5 -108 |
| lowvig | -44 -108 | 60 -108 |
Best IU number -44 · best WKU number +44.5. Best over 59.5 · best under 61.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from IU's side.
Line movement
- Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openIU -44.5 (-44.5–-44)o/u 60.3 (59.5–61.5)8 books
- Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyIU -44.5 (-44.5–-44)o/u 60.3 (59.5–61.5)8 books
- Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyIU -44.5 (-44.5–-44)o/u 60.3 (59.5–61.5)8 books
- Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyIU -44.3 (-45.5–-44)o/u 60.3 (59.5–61)8 books
- Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyIU -44.3 (-45.5–-44)o/u 60.3 (59.5–61)8 books
Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.
Prediction market · Kalshi
Kalshi's market prices IU to win 99% — about IU -31.4 vs the book's IU -44.5. 13.1-pt gap — the market rates WKU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.
- Sep 16, 10:00 AMIU 99%79k vol
- Sep 16, 10:30 AMIU 99%79k vol
- Sep 16, 11:00 AMIU 99%79k vol
- Sep 16, 11:30 AMIU 99%79k vol
- Sep 16, 12:00 PMIU 99%79k vol
Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.
Weather
Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.
- Sep 16, 6:00 AM92°F (feels 95°)wind 5.6 g11precip 4%
- Sep 15, 4:00 PM81°F (feels 89°)wind 2.2 g1precip 5%
- Sep 15, 6:00 AM95°F (feels 98°)wind 7.7 g11precip 4%
Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.
Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.
Injuries
No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.
Picks
No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.
Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.