the yahngorithm
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Northern Iowa
MVFC · FCS
@
18Iowa
Big Ten
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:00 PM CT · FS1 · Kinnick Stadium
Market spreadIOWA -40.5
Market total48.5
Model spreadIOWA -44.4
Edge+3.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel IOWA -44.4
market IOWA -40.5  ·  edge +3.9 (home)  ·  UNI -30 vs IOWA +11.9 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel IOWA -43.9
market IOWA -40.5  ·  edge +3.4 (home)  ·  UNI -30 vs IOWA +11.1 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Iowa. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UNI-30—0-30
IOWA+11.9-0.5-0.3+11.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UNI expected
7
0.6 pts/poss
IOWA expected
41.6
3.7 pts/poss
Model total
48.6
market 48.5 · 22.7 poss, average pace
Edge
+0.1
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

lookaheadIowathen Michiganhurts IOWA
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.
letdownIowabeat Iowa Statehurts IOWA
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.
bad spotIowalookahead + letdownhurts IOWA
Two or more situational negatives stacked on this team (e.g. a long trip on a short week, or a letdown spot after a long trip). Backtests ~57% ATS on the fade — a decision aid, not a lock. Take the points against this team.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UNIIOWA
ATS overall–1-1
ATS at home–1-1
ATS on the road––
ATS as favorite–1-1
ATS as underdog––
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–2-0
W–L on the road––
Over / Under–0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (IOWA)Total
fanduel-40.5 -11248.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from IOWA's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

UNI1%
IOWA99%
Implied lineIOWA -31.4
Volume94k
Open interest94k
Traded 24h8.0k

Kalshi's market prices IOWA to win 99% — about IOWA -31.4 vs the book's IOWA -40.5. 9.1-pt gap — the market rates UNI higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.