the yahngorithm
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Louisiana Tech
Sun Belt
@
Baylor
Big 12
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:00 PM CT · ESPNU · McLane Stadium
Market spreadBAY -19.5
Market total53.5
Model spreadBAY -15.2
Edge-4.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel BAY -15.2
market BAY -19.5  ·  edge -4.3 (away)  ·  LT -7.2 vs BAY +5.5 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel BAY -15.2
market BAY -19.5  ·  edge -4.3 (away)  ·  LT -6.7 vs BAY +5.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Baylor. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
LT-7.2+0.50-6.7
BAY+5.5+0.3+0.1+5.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

LT expected
23.4
1.8 pts/poss
BAY expected
38.6
3 pts/poss
Model total
62.1
market 53.5 · 25.7 poss, average pace
Edge
+8.6
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamBaylor2 pts in 3hhelps BAY
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

LTBAY
ATS overall2-02-0
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road1-01-0
ATS as favorite1-01-0
ATS as underdog1-01-0
ATS after a win1-0–
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under2O–0U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (BAY)Total
betmgm-19 -11053.5 -108
betonlineag-19.5 -11053.5 -110
betrivers-19.5 -10953.5 -112
betus-19.5 -11053.5 -110
bovada-19.5 -11553 -115
draftkings-19.5 -10853.5 -108
fanduel-18.5 -11252.5 -114
lowvig-19.5 -10653.5 -108
mybookieag-19.5 -11053 -110

Best BAY number -18.5 · best LT number +19.5. Best over 52.5 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from BAY's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

LT12%
BAY88%
Implied lineBAY -15.9
Volume58k
Open interest56k
Traded 24h27k

Kalshi's market prices BAY to win 88% — about BAY -15.9 vs the book's BAY -19.5. 3.6-pt gap — the market rates LT higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.