the yahngorithm
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Ball State
Mid-American
@
Liberty
Conference USA
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Williams Stadium (VA)
Market spreadLIB -14.5
Market total49.5
Model spreadLIB -16.7
Edge+2.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel LIB -16.7
market LIB -14.5  ·  edge +2.2  ·  BALL -23.2 vs LIB -9 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel LIB -16.8
market LIB -14.5  ·  edge +2.3  ·  BALL -23.4 vs LIB -9.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Liberty. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
BALL-23.2-0.5+0.3-23.4
LIB-9-0.5+0.2-9.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

BALL expected
18.5
1.6 pts/poss
LIB expected
35.2
3 pts/poss
Model total
53.6
market 49.5 · 23.8 poss, average pace
Edge
+4.1
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

BALLLIB
ATS overall1-10-2
ATS at home1-00-1
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite1-00-1
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss1-00-1
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under2O–0U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (LIB)Total
betmgm-14.5 -10549.5 -110
betonlineag-14.5 -11049.5 -110
betrivers-14.5 -10850.5 -112
betus-14.5 -11049.5 -110
bovada-14 -11050 -110
draftkings-14.5 -10549.5 -108
fanduel-14.5 -11049.5 -110
lowvig-14.5 -10649.5 -108
mybookieag-14.5 -11050 -110

Best LIB number -14 · best BALL number +14.5. Best over 49.5 · best under 50.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from LIB's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

BALL16%
LIB84%
Implied lineLIB -13.5
Volume3.2k
Open interest3.1k
Traded 24h593

Kalshi's market prices LIB to win 84% — about LIB -13.5 vs the book's LIB -14.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.