the yahngorithm

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Mississippi State

SEC

South Carolina

SEC

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:15 PM CT · SEC Network · Williams-Brice Stadium

Market spreadSC -4

Market total59.5

Model spreadSC -9.4

Edge+5.4

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel SC -9.4

market SC -4 · edge +5.4 (home) · MSST +8.1 vs SC +15 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel SC -10.1

market SC -4 · edge +6.1 (home) · MSST +8.5 vs SC +15.8 + 2.9 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes South Carolina. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

MSST+8.1+0.5-0.1+8.5

SC+15+0.5+0.3+15.8

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.9 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MSST expected

1.9 pts/poss

SC expected

31.4

2.7 pts/poss

Model total

53.4

market 59.5 · 23.3 poss, average pace

Edge

-6.1

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MSSTSC

ATS overall2-01-1

ATS at home1-01-1

ATS on the road1-0–

ATS as favorite1-01-1

ATS as underdog––

ATS after a win1-00-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home1-02-0

W–L on the road1-0–

Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (SC)	Total
betmgm	-3.5 -118	59.5 -110
betonlineag	-4 -105	59.5 -107
betrivers	-3.5 -114	59 -109
betus	-4 -110	59.5 -105
bovada	-3.5 -110	59.5 -110
draftkings	-4 -105	59.5 -108
fanduel	-3.5 -115	59.5 -115
lowvig	-4 -101	59.5 -105
mybookieag	-4 -110	60 -110

Best SC number -3.5 · best MSST number +4. Best over 59 · best under 60. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SC's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openSC -4 (-4–-3.5)o/u 59.5 (59–60)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailySC -4 (-4–-3.5)o/u 59.5 (59–60)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailySC -4 (-4–-3.5)o/u 59.5 (59–60)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailySC -4 (-4–-3.5)o/u 59.5 (59–60)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailySC -3.5 (-4–-3.5)o/u 59.5 (59–59.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MSST38%

SC62%

Implied lineSC -4.1

Volume126k

Open interest108k

Traded 24h34k

Kalshi's market prices SC to win 62% — about SC -4.1 vs the book's SC -4. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMSC 61%124k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMSC 62%124k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMSC 62%125k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMSC 62%125k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMSC 62%126k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM83°F (feels 91°)wind 5.6 g8precip 50%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM86°F (feels 96°)wind 0.7 g1precip 35%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM95°Fwind 5.7 g4precip 9%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.