the yahngorithm
← board
SE Louisiana
Southland · FCS
@
UL Monroe
Sun Belt
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM CT · ESPN+ · Malone Stadium
Market spreadULM -11.5
Market total47.5
Model spreadULM -2.3
Edge-9.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ULM -2.3
market ULM -11.5  ·  edge -9.2 (away)  ·  SELA -31 vs ULM -31.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ULM -2.5
market ULM -11.5  ·  edge -9 (away)  ·  SELA -31 vs ULM -31.2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes UL Monroe. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
SELA-31——-31
ULM-31.2-0.5+0.5-31.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

SELA expected
26
2.2 pts/poss
ULM expected
28.3
2.4 pts/poss
Model total
54.3
market 47.5 · 23.3 poss, average pace
Edge
+6.8
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

extreme heatBoth teams102°F, feels 106°, 26% RH
Kickoff "feels like" 100°F+ (heat index — and the field runs hotter still). Second-half legs and depth matter more; offenses tend to bog down late. Small lean UNDER. Affects both teams.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

SELAULM
ATS overall0-11-1
ATS at home––
ATS on the road0-11-1
ATS as favorite––
ATS as underdog0-11-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss–1-0
W–L at home––
W–L on the road0-10-2
Over / Under1O–0U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ULM)Total
fanduel-11.5 -11247.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ULM's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.