the yahngorithm
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Florida International
Conference USA
@
Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 5:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · FAU Stadium
Market spreadFAU -7
Market total62.5
Model spreadFAU -6
Edge-1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel FAU -6
market FAU -7  ·  edge -1  ·  FIU -13.4 vs FAU -9.9 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel FAU -5.4
market FAU -7  ·  edge -1.6  ·  FIU -12.8 vs FAU -10.2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Florida Atlantic. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
FIU-13.4+0.5+0.1-12.8
FAU-9.9-0.5+0.3-10.2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

FIU expected
28.2
2.3 pts/poss
FAU expected
34.2
2.8 pts/poss
Model total
62.3
market 62.5 · 24.5 poss, average pace
Edge
-0.2
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeFlorida Atlanticlost by 10 (rivalry)helps FAU
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

FIUFAU
ATS overall2-01-1
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road1-00-1
ATS as favorite1-0–
ATS as underdog1-01-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss1-01-0
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–1U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (FAU)Total
betmgm-7 -10562.5 -110
betonlineag-6.5 -11762.5 -110
betrivers-7 -10862.5 -110
betus-7 -10562.5 -115
bovada-7 -10562.5 -115
draftkings-7 -10562.5 -110
fanduel-6.5 -11862.5 -110
lowvig-6.5 -11362.5 -108
mybookieag-7 -11063 -110

Best FAU number -6.5 · best FIU number +7. Best over 62.5 · best under 63. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from FAU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

FIU31%
FAU69%
Implied lineFAU -6.8
Volume7.1k
Open interest5.5k
Traded 24h453

Kalshi's market prices FAU to win 69% — about FAU -6.8 vs the book's FAU -7. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.