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East Carolina
American Athletic
@
Old Dominion
Sun Belt
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 5:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Market spreadODU -3
Market total49.5
Model spreadODU -2.3
Edge-0.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel ODU -2.3
market ODU -3  ·  edge -0.7  ·  ECU -8.6 vs ODU -8.8 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel ODU -3.3
market ODU -3  ·  edge +0.3  ·  ECU -9.2 vs ODU -8.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Old Dominion. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
ECU-8.6-0.5-0.1-9.2
ODU-8.8+0.5-0.4-8.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

ECU expected
25.4
2 pts/poss
ODU expected
27.7
2.2 pts/poss
Model total
53
market 49.5 · 25.3 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.5
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeOld Dominionlost by 6helps ODU
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

ECUODU
ATS overall0-20-2
ATS at home0-10-1
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite0-10-1
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win–0-1
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home0-11-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (ODU)Total
betmgm-3 -10849.5 -110
betonlineag-3 -10149.5 -110
betrivers-2.5 -11349.5 -112
betus-3 +10049.5 -110
bovada-3 +10049.5 -110
draftkings-3 -10849.5 -110
fanduel-2.5 -12249.5 -108
lowvig-3 +10449.5 -108
mybookieag-3 -11049.5 -110

Best ODU number -2.5 · best ECU number +3. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from ODU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

ECU44%
ODU56%
Implied lineODU -2
Volume1.2k
Open interest942
Traded 24h239

Kalshi's market prices ODU to win 56% — about ODU -2 vs the book's ODU -3. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.