the yahngorithm
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Charlotte
American Athletic
@
App State
Sun Belt
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 5:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Market spreadAPP -17.5
Market total51.5
Model spreadAPP -20.3
Edge+2.8

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel APP -20.3
market APP -17.5  ·  edge +2.8 (home)  ·  CLT -27.1 vs APP -9.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel APP -20.2
market APP -17.5  ·  edge +2.7 (home)  ·  CLT -26.2 vs APP -8.7 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes App State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
CLT-27.1+0.4+0.5-26.2
APP-9.3+0.5+0.1-8.7

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CLT expected
17.2
1.5 pts/poss
APP expected
37.5
3.2 pts/poss
Model total
54.8
market 51.5 · 23.5 poss, average pace
Edge
+3.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamCharlotte1.5 pts in 3hhelps CLT
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.
letdownApp Statebeat East Carolinahurts APP
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CLTAPP
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home0-11-0
ATS on the road1-01-0
ATS as favorite0-11-0
ATS as underdog1-01-0
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss1-0–
W–L at home0-11-0
W–L on the road0-11-0
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (APP)Total
betmgm-17.5 -10851.5 -108
betonlineag-17.5 -10551.5 -110
betrivers-17.5 -11351.5 -110
betus-17.5 -11051.5 -110
bovada-17.5 -11051 -115
draftkings-17.5 -11051.5 -105
fanduel-17.5 -11051.5 -112
lowvig-17.5 -10151.5 -108
mybookieag-17.5 -11051.5 -110

Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from APP's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.