the yahngorithm
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Marshall
Sun Belt
@
Missouri State
Conference USA
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 5:30 PM CT · CBSSN · Plaster Sports Complex
Market spreadMRSH -3.5
Market total52
Model spreadMRSH -2.2
Edge+1.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MRSH -2.2
market MRSH -3.5  ·  edge +1.3  ·  MRSH -13.6 vs MOST -18.3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MRSH -1.3
market MRSH -3.5  ·  edge +2.2  ·  MRSH -13.6 vs MOST -17.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Missouri State. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
MRSH-13.6-0.5+0.5-13.6
MOST-18.3+0.4+0.3-17.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

MRSH expected
31.1
2.5 pts/poss
MOST expected
28.9
2.4 pts/poss
Model total
60
market 52 · 24.5 poss, average pace
Edge
+8
model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeMarshalllost by 1helps MRSH
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

MRSHMOST
ATS overall0-21-1
ATS at home0-11-0
ATS on the road0-10-1
ATS as favorite0-11-0
ATS as underdog0-10-1
ATS after a win––
ATS after a loss0-11-0
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under0O–2U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MOST)Total
betmgm+3.5 -11051.5 -115
betonlineag+3.5 -11052 -115
betrivers+4 -11251.5 -109
betus+3.5 -11052 -115
bovada+3.5 -11552 -110
draftkings+3.5 -11551.5 -112
fanduel+3.5 -11452.5 -105
lowvig+3.5 -10652 -114
mybookieag+3.5 -11052 -110

Best MOST number +4 · best MRSH number -3.5. Best over 51.5 · best under 52.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MOST's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

MRSH62%
MOST38%▼ 1.2
Implied lineMRSH -4
Volume38k
Open interest29k
Traded 24h9.3k

Kalshi's market prices MOST to win 38% — about MRSH -4 vs the book's MRSH -3.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKMRSH -3.5spread · sp_plus · logged at -3.9 edge
model -7.4logged -3.5close –CLV –
revenge

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.