the yahngorithm
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Nevada
Mountain West
@
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Market spreadNEV -3.5
Market total50.5
Model spreadNEV -11.2
Edge-7.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel NEV -11.2
market NEV -3.5  ·  edge -7.7 (away)  ·  NEV -9.5 vs MTSU -23.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel NEV -10.5
market NEV -3.5  ·  edge -7 (away)  ·  NEV -9 vs MTSU -22.3 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Middle Tennessee. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
NEV-9.5+0.5-0.1-9
MTSU-23.2+0.5+0.4-22.3

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NEV expected
30.3
2.7 pts/poss
MTSU expected
19.1
1.7 pts/poss
Model total
49.4
market 50.5 · 22.5 poss, average pace
Edge
-1.1
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

travelNevada1836 mi, 2hhurts NEV
Home stadium is 1,200+ miles from the venue, or the body-clock timezone shift is 2+ hours. A documented small drag on the traveling team.
revengeNevadalost by 1helps NEV
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NEVMTSU
ATS overall1-12-0
ATS at home1-11-0
ATS on the road–1-0
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog1-11-0
ATS after a win0-11-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-11-0
W–L on the road–0-1
Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MTSU)Total
betmgm+4 -10851.5 -105
betonlineag+4 -11650.5 -108
betrivers+3.5 -10950.5 -115
betus+3.5 -11050.5 -110
bovada+4 -11550.5 -115
draftkings+3.5 -10850.5 -112
fanduel+3.5 -11051.5 -104
lowvig+4 -11250.5 -106
mybookieag+3.5 -11050.5 -110

Best MTSU number +4 · best NEV number -3.5. Best over 50.5 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MTSU's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

NEV63%
MTSU37%
Implied lineNEV -4.5
Volume11k
Open interest11k
Traded 24h9.7k

Kalshi's market prices MTSU to win 37% — about NEV -4.5 vs the book's NEV -3.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKNEV -5.5spread · sp_plus · logged at -6.7 edge
model -12.2logged -5.5close –CLV –
revenge

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.