the yahngorithm

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UConn

FBS Independents

Southern Miss

Sun Belt

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · M. M. Roberts Stadium

Market spreadCONN -3

Market total54.5

Model spreadCONN -6.5

Edge-3.5

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel CONN -6.5

market CONN -3 · edge -3.5 (away) · CONN -9.1 vs USM -18.1 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel CONN -5.8

market CONN -3 · edge -2.8 (away) · CONN -8.6 vs USM -17.1 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Southern Miss. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

CONN-9.1+0.50-8.6

USM-18.1+0.5+0.5-17.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

CONN expected

31.5

2.6 pts/poss

USM expected

2.1 pts/poss

Model total

56.5

market 54.5 · 24.1 poss, average pace

Edge

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

CONNUSM

ATS overall1-11-1

ATS at home1-11-0

ATS on the road–0-1

ATS as favorite1-01-0

ATS as underdog0-10-1

ATS after a win0-10-1

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home1-11-0

W–L on the road–0-1

Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (USM)	Total
betmgm	+3 -105	54.5 -110
betonlineag	+3 -104	54.5 -110
betrivers	+3.5 -115	54.5 -113
betus	+3 -105	54.5 -110
bovada	+3 -105	54.5 -110
draftkings	+3 -105	54.5 -112
fanduel	+3.5 -120	54.5 -110
lowvig	+3 +100	54.5 -108
mybookieag	+3 -105	54.5 -110

Best USM number +3.5 · best CONN number -3. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USM's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openCONN -3 (3–3.5)o/u 54.59 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyCONN -3 (3–3.5)o/u 54.59 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyCONN -3 (3–3.5)o/u 54.59 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyCONN -3 (3–3.5)o/u 54.59 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyCONN -3 (2.5–3.5)o/u 54.5 (54–54.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

CONN58%

USM42%

Implied lineCONN -2.9

Volume1.9k

Open interest1.9k

Traded 24h461

Kalshi's market prices USM to win 42% — about CONN -2.9 vs the book's CONN -3. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMUSM 42%1.9k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMUSM 42%1.9k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMUSM 42%1.9k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMUSM 42%1.9k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMUSM 42%1.9k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM91°F (feels 97°)wind 3 g4precip 9%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM88°F (feels 94°)wind 3.2 g4precip 6%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM85°F (feels 90°)wind 5.3 g14precip 21%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.