the yahngorithm

← board

Western Michigan

Mid-American

Rice

American Athletic

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Rice Stadium

Market spreadWMU -9.5

Market total43.5

Model spreadWMU -10.4

Edge-0.9

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel WMU -10.4

market WMU -9.5 · edge -0.9 · WMU -4.1 vs RICE -17 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel WMU -10.2

market WMU -9.5 · edge -0.7 · WMU -3.6 vs RICE -16.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Rice. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

WMU-4.1+0.1+0.4-3.6

RICE-17+0.1+0.3-16.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

WMU expected

27.7

2.5 pts/poss

RICE expected

17.3

1.5 pts/poss

Model total

market 43.5 · 22.5 poss, average pace

Edge

+1.5

under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

WMURICE

ATS overall2-01-1

ATS at home1-01-0

ATS on the road1-00-1

ATS as favorite1-01-0

ATS as underdog1-00-1

ATS after a win–0-1

ATS after a loss1-0–

W–L at home1-01-0

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (RICE)	Total
betmgm	+9.5 -108	43.5 -110
betonlineag	+9.5 -103	43.5 -113
betrivers	+10 -114	43.5 -113
betus	+9.5 -105	43.5 -115
bovada	+9.5 -105	43.5 -115
draftkings	+9.5 -108	43.5 -115
fanduel	+9.5 -106	43.5 -110
lowvig	+9.5 +101	43.5 -112
mybookieag	+9.5 -110	43.5 -110

Best RICE number +10 · best WMU number -9.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from RICE's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openWMU -9.5 (9.5–10)o/u 43.59 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyWMU -9.5 (9.5–10)o/u 43.59 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyWMU -9.5 (9.5–10)o/u 43.59 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyWMU -9.5 (9.5–10)o/u 43.59 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyWMU -9.5 (9.5–10)o/u 43.59 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

WMU77%

RICE23%

Implied lineWMU -10

Volume13k

Open interest12k

Traded 24h2.5k

Kalshi's market prices RICE to win 23% — about WMU -10 vs the book's WMU -9.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMRICE 24%12k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMRICE 23%12k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMRICE 23%13k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMRICE 23%13k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMRICE 23%13k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM91°Fwind 11.6 g13precip 3%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM90°Fwind 11.4 g12precip 6%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM90°Fwind 12.4 g10precip 3%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.