the yahngorithm
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Delaware State
MEAC · FCS
@
South Florida
American Athletic
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Raymond James Stadium
Market spreadUSF -37.5
Market total62.5
Model spreadUSF -32.8
Edge-4.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel USF -32.8
market USF -37.5  ·  edge -4.7 (away)  ·  DSU -33.3 vs USF -3 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel USF -32.4
market USF -37.5  ·  edge -5.1 (away)  ·  DSU -33.3 vs USF -3.6 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes South Florida. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
DSU-33.3—0-33.3
USF-3-0.5-0.1-3.6

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

DSU expected
9.3
0.8 pts/poss
USF expected
42.1
3.7 pts/poss
Model total
51.3
market 62.5 · 23 poss, average pace
Edge
-11.2
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

letdownSouth Floridabeat Armyhurts USF
Won an emotional game last week (rivalry or within 3 SP+ pts) and this week's opponent is 10+ SP+ pts weaker. Emotional hangover — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

DSUUSF
ATS overall–1-1
ATS at home–0-1
ATS on the road–1-0
ATS as favorite–0-1
ATS as underdog–1-0
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road–1-0
Over / Under–1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (USF)Total
fanduel-37.5 -10662.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USF's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

DSU1%
USF99%
Implied lineUSF -31.4
Volume174k
Open interest172k
Traded 24h4.2k

Kalshi's market prices USF to win 99% — about USF -31.4 vs the book's USF -37.5. 6.1-pt gap — the market rates DSU higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.