the yahngorithm
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UT Martin
OVC · FCS
@
Memphis
American Athletic
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Market spreadMEM -34.5
Market total56.5
Model spreadMEM -34.2
Edge-0.3

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel MEM -34.2
market MEM -34.5  ·  edge -0.3  ·  UTM -33.2 vs MEM -1.5 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel MEM -33.9
market MEM -34.5  ·  edge -0.6  ·  UTM -33.2 vs MEM -2 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Memphis. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
UTM-33.2—0-33.2
MEM-1.5-0.3-0.2-2

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

UTM expected
11.3
1 pts/poss
MEM expected
45.5
3.9 pts/poss
Model total
56.8
market 56.5 · 23.3 poss, average pace
Edge
+0.3
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

UTMMEM
ATS overall0-12-1 67%
ATS at home–1-0
ATS on the road0-11-1
ATS as favorite–1-0
ATS as underdog0-11-1
ATS after a win–1-1
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home–1-0
W–L on the road0-11-1
Over / Under1O–0U2O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (MEM)Total
fanduel-34.5 -10556.5 -108

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from MEM's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

No Kalshi market matched to this game (it may not be listed, or the teams didn't resolve). Marquee games have the deepest markets.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.