the yahngorithm

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Florida

SEC

Auburn

SEC

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN · Jordan-Hare Stadium

Market spreadFLA -2.5

Market total53.5

Model spreadFLA -5.2

Edge-2.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel FLA -5.2

market FLA -2.5 · edge -2.7 (away) · FLA +17.5 vs AUB +9.8 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel FLA -6

market FLA -2.5 · edge -3.5 (away) · FLA +18 vs AUB +9.1 + 3 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes Auburn. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

FLA+17.5+0.5—+18

AUB+9.8-0.5-0.2+9.1

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 3 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

FLA expected

25.1

2.2 pts/poss

AUB expected

19.9

1.8 pts/poss

Model total

market 53.5 · 22.5 poss, average pace

Edge

-8.5

model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

FLAAUB

ATS overall1-11-1

ATS at home1-11-1

ATS on the road––

ATS as favorite1-11-1

ATS as underdog––

ATS after a win0-11-0

ATS after a loss––

W–L at home2-02-0

W–L on the road––

Over / Under1O–1U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (AUB)	Total
betmgm	+2.5 -105	53.5 -108
betonlineag	+2.5 -103	53.5 -110
betrivers	+2.5 -108	53.5 -110
betus	+2.5 -105	53.5 -110
bovada	+2.5 -105	53 -110
draftkings	+2.5 -105	53.5 -110
fanduel	+2.5 -105	52.5 -110
lowvig	+2.5 +101	53.5 -108
mybookieag	+2.5 -110	53.5 -110

Best over 52.5 · best under 53.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from AUB's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openFLA -2.5o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailyFLA -2.5o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailyFLA -2.5o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailyFLA -2.5o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailyFLA -2.5 (2.5–3)o/u 53.5 (52.5–53.5)9 books

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

FLA55%

AUB45%▲ 1

Implied lineFLA -1.8

Volume77k

Open interest72k

Traded 24h19k

Kalshi's market prices AUB to win 45% — about FLA -1.8 vs the book's FLA -2.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMAUB 45%75k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMAUB 45%75k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMAUB 45%76k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMAUB 45%76k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMAUB 45%77k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM81°F (feels 88°)wind 2.7 g3precip 25%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM86°F (feels 91°)wind 3.5 g3precip 10%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM83°F (feels 84°)wind 3.5 g2precip 9%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.