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Nicholls

Southland · FCS

Sam Houston

Conference USA

Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium

Market spreadSHSU -18.5

Market total50.5

Model spreadSHSU -16.8

Edge-1.7

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel SHSU -16.8

market SHSU -18.5 · edge -1.7 · NICH -37.3 vs SHSU -23 + 2.5 HFA

SRSscoring margin

no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3

YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel SHSU -18.1

market SHSU -18.5 · edge -0.4 · NICH -37.3 vs SHSU -22 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 1 book. Positive edge = model likes Sam Houston. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model

SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating

NICH-37.3—0-37.3

SHSU-23+0.5+0.5-22

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

NICH expected

19.3

1.6 pts/poss

SHSU expected

36.1

3.1 pts/poss

Model total

55.5

market 50.5 · 23.5 poss, average pace

Edge

model leans over

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

No situational flags on this game.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

NICHSHSU

ATS overall0-12-0

ATS at home–1-0

ATS on the road0-11-0

ATS as favorite––

ATS as underdog0-12-0

ATS after a win––

ATS after a loss–1-0

W–L at home–0-1

W–L on the road0-10-1

Over / Under1O–0U0O–2U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

Book	Spread (SHSU)	Total
fanduel	-18.5 -110	50.5 -110

Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from SHSU's side.

Line movement

Sep 15, 8:01 AM · openSHSU -18.5o/u 50.51 book
Sep 14, 11:00 PM · dailySHSU -18.5o/u 50.51 book
Sep 14, 8:00 PM · dailySHSU -18.5o/u 50.51 book
Sep 14, 5:00 PM · dailySHSU -18.5o/u 50.51 book
Sep 14, 2:00 PM · dailySHSU -18.5o/u 50.51 book

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

NICH9%

SHSU91%

Implied lineSHSU -18.2

Volume2.0k

Open interest1.6k

Traded 24h180

Kalshi's market prices SHSU to win 91% — about SHSU -18.2 vs the book's SHSU -18.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Sep 16, 10:00 AMSHSU 91%2.0k vol
Sep 16, 10:30 AMSHSU 91%2.0k vol
Sep 16, 11:00 AMSHSU 91%2.0k vol
Sep 16, 11:30 AMSHSU 91%2.0k vol
Sep 16, 12:00 PMSHSU 91%2.0k vol

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Sep 16, 6:00 AM93°F (feels 94°)wind 8.6 g9precip 0%
Sep 15, 4:00 PM92°F (feels 93°)wind 9 g10precip 0%
Sep 15, 6:00 AM92°Fwind 10.3 g9precip 0%

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.