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Ohio
Mid-American
@
South Alabama
Sun Belt
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Market spreadUSA -5.5
Market total51.5
Model spreadUSA -4.5
Edge-1

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel USA -4.5
market USA -5.5  ·  edge -1  ·  OHIO -14.2 vs USA -12.2 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel USA -5.2
market USA -5.5  ·  edge -0.3  ·  OHIO -14.5 vs USA -12 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes South Alabama. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
OHIO-14.2-0.5+0.2-14.5
USA-12.2-0.1+0.3-12

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

OHIO expected
21.3
1.9 pts/poss
USA expected
25.8
2.4 pts/poss
Model total
47
market 51.5 · 21.9 poss, average pace
Edge
-4.5
model leans under

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

revengeSouth Alabamalost by 7helps USA
Lost the last meeting (within 2 seasons) in a rivalry or by ≤10 points, and this year's game projects within 14. The "one that got away" angle — modest, partly priced in.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

OHIOUSA
ATS overall0-22-0
ATS at home0-11-0
ATS on the road0-11-0
ATS as favorite0-11-0
ATS as underdog0-11-0
ATS after a win–1-0
ATS after a loss0-1–
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road0-10-1
Over / Under2O–0U2O–0U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (USA)Total
betmgm-5 -11051.5 -108
betonlineag-5.5 -10851 -112
betrivers-4.5 -11251.5 -112
betus-5.5 -11051 -110
bovada-5.5 -11051.5 -115
draftkings-5.5 -10251.5 -112
fanduel-4.5 -11451.5 -110
lowvig-5.5 -10451 -110
mybookieag-5.5 -11051.5 -110

Best USA number -4.5 · best OHIO number +5.5. Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from USA's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

OHIO30%
USA70%▲ 4.2
Implied lineUSA -7
Volume68k
Open interest68k
Traded 24h46k

Kalshi's market prices USA to win 70% — about USA -7 vs the book's USA -5.5. 1.5-pt gap — the market rates USA higher than the book. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

PICKUSA -4.5spread · sp_plus · logged at +3 edge
model 7.5logged 4.5close –CLV –
revenge

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.