the yahngorithm
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Georgia State
Sun Belt
@
UCF
Big 12
Week 3 · 2026 · Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN+ · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Market spreadUCF -18.5
Market total51.5
Model spreadUCF -29.7
Edge+11.2

Spread models

SP+efficiencymodel UCF -29.7
market UCF -18.5  ·  edge +11.2 (home)  ·  GAST -23.5 vs UCF +3.7 + 2.5 HFA
SRSscoring margin
no games played yet — empty in week 1, noisy through ~week 3
YahnSP+ + EPA + rostermodel UCF -29.1
market UCF -18.5  ·  edge +10.6 (home)  ·  GAST -22.5 vs UCF +3.9 + 2.7 HFA

The spread signal is SP+ only right now. Market is the consensus of 9 books. Positive edge = model likes UCF. Guide §2.

How the Yahn number is built — not a separate model
SP+ base+ EPA+ roster= rating
GAST-23.5+0.5+0.5-22.5
UCF+3.7+0.5-0.3+3.9

SP+ is the backbone. EPA nudges toward raw efficiency (weight grows through the season — near zero this early). Roster = talent + returning production + transfer-portal net, fading to zero by week 5. Venue home edge: 2.7 (2.7 base + altitude / hostile bump; SP+ and SRS use a flat 2.5). Weights un-calibrated.

Totals model

GAST expected
11.3
1 pts/poss
UCF expected
41
3.5 pts/poss
Model total
52.3
market 51.5 · 23.6 poss, average pace
Edge
+0.8
under the 3.5-pt bar — noise

Only SP+ feeds this. Totals are noisier than spreads — the model's biggest UNDER edges cluster on blowouts and are mostly artifacts. Trust it most on games with a spread inside ~14. Guide §3.

Situational flags

steamGeorgia State1.8 pts in 3hhelps GAST
The consensus spread made a fast, synchronized move toward this team across the books — a sign real money came in on them quickly.
lookaheadUCFthen TCUhurts UCF
Decent team favored by 13+ this week, with a rivalry or tough opponent (within ~6) next week. Classic trap — fade this team / take the points.

Flags corroborate, they never drive a pick. A flag against a team the model already dislikes is a green light; against a team the model likes, it cancels out. Guide §5.

Team trends · 2026 season to date

GASTUCF
ATS overall2-02-0
ATS at home1-01-0
ATS on the road1-01-0
ATS as favorite1-01-0
ATS as underdog1-01-0
ATS after a win1-01-0
ATS after a loss––
W–L at home1-01-0
W–L on the road1-00-1
Over / Under1O–1U1O–1U

Amber = an outlier split (≥65% or ≤35% ATS on 8+ games). Trends are context, not a signal on their own.

Current lines

BookSpread (UCF)Total
betmgm-18.5 -10551.5 -108
betonlineag-18.5 -11051.5 -108
betrivers-18.5 -10951.5 -114
betus-18 -11051.5 -110
bovada-18.5 -11051 -115
draftkings-18.5 -11251.5 -108
fanduel-18.5 -11051.5 -108
lowvig-18.5 -10651.5 -106
mybookieag-18.5 -11051.5 -110

Best UCF number -18 · best GAST number +18.5. Best over 51 · best under 51.5. Latest snapshot Sep 15, 8:01 AM. Odds shown where the source provides them (live pulls only). Spread is from UCF's side.

Line movement

Showing the 5 most recent snapshots of 7.

Prediction market · Kalshi

GAST10%
UCF90%
Implied lineUCF -17.4
Volume3.3k
Open interest3.2k
Traded 24h730

Kalshi's market prices UCF to win 90% — about UCF -17.4 vs the book's UCF -18.5. They agree. Volume and open interest are total contracts on the game (each settles at $1), not a per-side split — they tell you how much to trust the price. Guide §9.

Showing the 5 most recent of 12 snapshots.

Weather

Forecast for the venue at kickoff time (nearest hour). Each row is a snapshot — expect it to firm up as the game nears; the timestamp is when that snapshot was taken.

Showing the 3 most recent of 5 readings.

Sustained wind ≥ 15 mph is the one weather factor that reliably moves a total (UNDER). Everything else is minor. Guide §4.

Injuries

No impact-player injuries listed. ESPN's CFB feed is thin — an empty report means "unknown," not "clean." Guide §4.

Picks

No pick logged. Most model disagreements never become picks — see guide §6 for the bar.

Decision support, not a guarantee. Read the interpretation guide.